EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
The technical foundation has April rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; notably, however, the current monthly candle is nearly 1% lower, testing the upper boundary of 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend has remained in motion since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buoyed on the back of a 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830 (pink), EUR/USD experienced a surge in demand over the course of the week. Northbound, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1060 offers a layer of resistance. Supply at 1.1239/1.1179 also remains a prominent fixture on this timeframe, sited just north of a 61.8% Fib level at 1.1171 and intersecting with trendline resistance (1.0879).
In addition to this, traders may find interest in supply coming in from 1.1323/1.1268, having seen a potential AB=CD correction point terminate at 1.1276 (orange). Traders will note, however, Monday concluded by way of a bearish engulfing formation.
H4 timeframe:
Sellers moderately strengthened their grip Monday, following a shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern (bearish signal) from the underside of supply at 1.1044/1.0966, accompanied with a nearby 50% retracement at 1.0954 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0973.
Continued pressure to the downside could eventually see the candles address support at 1.0831, a level that offered support Wednesday last week.
H1 timeframe:
Early London Monday observed a run of stops north of 1.0950, testing highs of 1.0967 before collapsing to 1.09. Joined with a channel support from 1.0768 and a 100-period SMA, there’s a chance buyers may attempt to lift things higher from here, possibly bringing 1.0950 back into the frame.
Though with the RSI indicator circulating sub 50.00, a move lower could be on the cards, with 1.0850 offering reasonably well-grounded support.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price rebounding from demand at 1.0488/1.0912, together with daily price printing a solid recovery from 1.0745/1.0830 last week, potentially sets the stage for further upside and somewhat negates Monday’s bearish engulfing formation. The 200-day SMA rests as an initial upside target on the bigger picture.
Having noted higher-timeframe flow echoing a bullish vibe, 1.09 may remain a supportive structure on the H1 timeframe, while H4 price might struggle to cross paths with support at 1.0831. Therefore, long opportunities from 1.09 could be an idea worthy of consideration today.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move reclaimed more than 60% of the month’s losses, drawing the pair to within reasonably close proximity of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
April currently trades more than 4% in the green. With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
AUD/USD registered its sixth successive daily gain Monday. Notably, price also engaged with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6398, followed by a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449 and trendline resistance (0.7031).
Additional buying, on the other hand, could land the unit at a supply base coming in at 0.6618/0.6544, with a 161.8% Fib ext. level just above at 0.6642.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Resistance between 0.6433/0.6338 remains a focal point on the H4 chart, despite recent buying.
Making up 0.6433/0.6338 we have a harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433. In addition, two 161.8% Fib ext. levels are seen at 0.6420 and 0.6338. It might also interest candlestick traders to note we recently formed a shooting star pattern (red arrow).
H1 timeframe:
The 0.64 handle, as can be seen from the H1 chart, made an appearance in recent hours, following a reasonably decisive move above 0.6350, sited just south of channel resistance (0.6208) and supply from 0.6461/0.6435. Also note, the test of 0.64 was accompanied alongside an overbought RSI signal.
Structures of Interest:
Price action on the monthly timeframe displays scope to approach supply at 0.7029/0.6664. Daily movement, however, faces Fib resistance around 0.6449/0.6398. This Fib resistance is also accompanied with H4 resistance structure aired above, as well as H1 price fading 0.64.
Further selling from 0.64 is certainly a possibility, though do bear in mind a fakeout above 0.64 to H1 supply at 0.6461/0.6435 could be seen before any serious sellers step in. This will also tap into buy-stops north of 0.64, potentially providing liquidity to sell into.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently mixing in around the 108.32ish region, ceded ground on Monday, potentially charting the way to demand coming in from 105.70/106.66.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Thursday last week observed the candles tunnel through local support from 108.53 and a trendline support (101.18). 108.53 remained in the frame Friday, offering resistance. Price headed lower from this angle Monday, closing within striking distance of a demand area at 106.75/107.22 (positioned just ahead of daily demand at 105.70/106.66). This was a noted move to watch for in Monday’s weekly report.
H1 timeframe:
Early London Monday witnessed USD/JPY retest the underside of 108 and challenge 107.50, which, as you can see, has held ground and broke back into a descending channel formation (108.99/108.20).
Structures of Interest:
A retest at 108 could be a scenario worthy of the watchlist today, due to both H4 and daily timeframes suggesting lower levels could be in store. The point 108 and H1 channel resistance merge (red arrow) is likely a point sellers may find interest in.
Support targets, aside from 107.50 on the H1, are seen at 107.22, the top edge of H1 demand, followed by 106.66, the top edge of daily demand.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains relevant in April, despite recent moves to said lows. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Supply at 1.2509/1.2372 had its upper edge tested Monday, with some traders likely betting on increased buying to demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2647.
The RSI indicator is seen making its way north of 50.00, eyeing a possible test of highs at 60.00, followed by 70.00, the traditional overbought value.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Sterling chalked up its sixth successive daily gain Monday amid a declining buck, drawing the candles into supply fixed at 1.2622/1.2517 which merges with a 61.8% Fib level at 1.2499 (green).
A rotation from the said base could lead to a pullback to familiar demand at 1.2147/1.2257.
H1 timeframe:
Technical development on the H1 timeframe has price action rebounding from the 1.25 handle, encased within the limits of what appears to be an ascending triangle pattern. The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern.
A breakout above the current triangle pattern, nevertheless, lands the candles within an area of supply from 1.2610/1.2549, an area containing the 1.26 handle within its upper limit.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly buyers are attempting to regain a foothold off 1.1904/1.2235, with daily price attacking the upper limit of supply at 1.2509/1.2372. H4 is seen crossing paths with supply at 1.2622/1.2517, while H1 displays an ascending triangle pattern off the 1.25 handle.
A breakout of the H1 triangle formation is likely on the cards. Although H4 tests supply and H1 shows supply fixed north at 1.2610/1.2549, monthly price is eyeing higher levels as is daily movement after clipping the upper edge of supply at 1.2509.
Ascending triangle take-profit targets are generally measured by taking the base value and adding this to the breakout point.
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