EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April has spent the best part of the month feasting on 1.0488/1.0912, threatening the possibility of a move to demand at 0.9581/1.0221 in the coming weeks.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Friday staged an impressive comeback off the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745, reclaiming all of Thursday’s losses and snapping a 4-day losing streak. Despite this, Monday failed to generate much follow-through upside, ending the day pretty much unchanged in the form of a shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern – bearish signal. Demand at 1.0526/1.0638, therefore, remains calling for attention, an area extended from March 2017.
Additionally, technical research has a potential ABCD correction (orange) lining up around the upper edge of the aforementioned demand.
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) continues to roll lower, down since mid-May 2018.
H4 timeframe:
Although the H4 timeframe recently chalked up a strong bearish candle, we cannot rule out the possibility of fresh upside attempts towards trendline resistance (1.1147), positioned close by tops around the 1.0890 neighbourhood (yellow) and a 61.8% Fib level at 1.0888.
H1 timeframe:
Crossing paths with 1.0850 amid early London hours Monday knocked some wind out of the euro’s earlier rally against the buck. This saw intraday action reverse gains into the close and greet the 100-period SMA, currently circulating ahead of 1.08 around 1.0817.
North of 1.0850 exhibits limited supply until reaching potential resistance off 1.09, while ground beneath 1.08 has supply-turned demand in sight at 1.0774/1.0761.
Structures of Interest:
Friday’s rebound from the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745 on the daily timeframe failed to impress sufficient buyers Monday, unable to sustain gains past 1.0860. Therefore, the core focus on the daily timeframe remains at demand from 1.0526/1.0638, in light of its ABCD confluence.
H4 trendline resistance (1.1147) will likely be of interest for sellers today in the event we climb higher, with many also focusing on the 61.8% Fib level at 1.0888. Sellers from here may consider reducing risk to breakeven when/if we retake 1.0850 on the H1 timeframe. The ultimate target for shorts, nonetheless, is set at daily demand discussed above from 1.0526/1.0638.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Upbeat risk sentiment lifted AUD/USD Monday, breaking the April 14 high at 0.6444 and unmasking supply coming in from 0.6618/0.6544. It should also be emphasised that this area also comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642. In addition, the RSI indicator is seen fast approaching its overbought level.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe, despite Monday’s advance. Technicians will also note we recently connected with a supply zone seen at 0.6540/0.6464, an area that may help push price action back beneath 0.6433.
The next clear demand target on the H4 timeframe can be found at 0.6192/0.6247.
H1 timeframe:
Monday spent the majority of its session carving out what appears to be an ascending triangle formation, formed around the upper boundary of a supply area at 0.6461/0.6435, drawn from mid-March. The ascending triangle usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. Therefore, a breakout higher could eventually see a run to 0.65.
The take-profit targets for ascending triangles are generally measured by taking the distance of the base and adding this value to the breakout point. Although it does not really offer much room to play with, the likelihood of 0.65 coming into play is still high.
Indicator-based traders may also want to pencil in bearish divergence out of overbought territory.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
H4 supply at 0.6540/0.6464 resides a touch beneath daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 and holds a connection to the current H4 harmonic Gartley pattern, therefore this base could hinder any upside moves out of the H1 ascending triangle formation. Should a downside breakout be seen out of the ascending triangle pattern, this would likely confirm seller strength out of H4 supply and possibly see further downside occur.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April so far has been pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.92.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
The (yet to complete) double-bottom pattern from 106.87 (black line) appears fragile, sited just ahead of demand from 105.70/106.66.
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently circulating around 108.29, is set as resistance on this scale.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand at 106.75/107.22 remains a feature on the H4 timeframe, capping downside since the beginning of the month and sited just ahead of daily demand underlined above at 105.70/106.66.
Interestingly, since mid-April the candles have been compressing within a bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07, with Monday observing a bearish close form beneath the pattern’s lower limit. This may be enough to overrun current demand and potentially make a run for demand at 105.75/105.17. Traditionally, take-profit targets are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding this value to the breakout point (black arrows).
H1 timeframe:
Monday had the H1 candles dip into demand coming in at 106.99/107.16, completing an ABCD approach (orange) at 107.10. Note the current H1 demand also houses the 107 handle within the lower boundary.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price could effectively pop either way, while daily price is showing signs of whipsawing into demand at 105.70/106.66.
The H4 close out of the current bearish pennant pattern suggests we may head lower, though most traders will want to see H4 demand at 106.75/107.22 cleared before moving forward. However, do bear in mind that even with the said H4 base taken out, sellers must also contend with daily demand mentioned above at 105.70/106.66.
Intraday action, based on the H1 timeframe, completed the ABCD correction into demand at 106.99/107.16 and has, as you can see, generated a response. Traditionally, take-profit targets out of the ABCD formations are the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements of legs A-D at 107.39 and 107.64. Therefore, additional buying could be in store.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play as we head into the closing stages of April. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191). Traders will also note price is currently trading in the shape of a doji indecision candle.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Price action on the daily timeframe currently trades in no man’s land at the moment, hovering between a demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns closely with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2643, and demand from 1.2212/1.2075.
This is the GBP/USD’s fourth consecutive daily gain.
H4 timeframe:
The H4 timeframe had demand at 1.2147/1.2257 welcome price action into the fold last week, which has contained downside since the beginning of April.
The latest reaction out of demand eventually drew in supply at 1.2496/1.2437; this is a reasonably dominant supply with notable downside momentum out of its base, seen just ahead of another layer of supply at 1.2622/1.2517.
H1 timeframe:
Buyers took a back seat heading into London Monday as the candles addressed 1.2450 and channel resistance (1.2414). This guided the pair lower into US movement, allowing for a retest at 1.24, a widely watched psychological level sited just ahead of demand at 1.2379/1.2393. Note this demand is considered the decision point that broke the April 23 high at 1.2414, therefore reasonably important.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price is holding north of support at 1.1904/1.2235, albeit in the shape of an indecision candle. Daily price, on the other hand, suggests we could pop either way.
H4 price ran into a worthy supply at 1.2496/1.2437, which, as you can see, is currently holding price action lower. However, rebounding from the 1.24 handle on the H1 timeframe suggests buyers still have a hand in this fight, although we have seen upside momentum level off in recent hours on this chart.
Overall, it appears buyers remain in the driving seat, according to structure. Should a retest at 1.24 take shape today, preferably one that whipsaws through the round number into H1 demand at 1.2379/1.2393, an advance could be on the cards.
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