April 28th 2021: Greenback Indecisive Ahead of US Federal Reserve Meeting

April 28th 2021: Greenback Indecisive Ahead of US Federal Reserve Meeting, FP Markets

Chart Source: Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following a three-month retracement, demand at 1.1857-1.1352 made an entrance and sparked a bullish revival in April, up 3.1 percent MTD.

Erasing March losses, April upside throws light on the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks, followed by a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017. Additionally, price breached trendline resistance, taken from the high 1.6038, in July 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis.

Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, Europe’s single currency left behind another muted vibe against the US dollar on Tuesday. Technical support at 1.2058 stands firm as a prime level on the daily scale. Quasimodo resistance also calls for attention at 1.2169, followed by another Quasimodo formation at 1.2278.

Upside momentum appears to be easing, according to the RSI oscillator which is levelling off just south of overbought status (resistance seen at 80.39).

Trend studies reveal EUR/USD has been trending higher since early 2020 (many analysts will refer to this as a primary trend).

H4 timeframe:

As evident from the H4 timeframe, buyers and sellers are seen squaring off within the lower range of a supply-turned demand zone at 1.2101-1.2059. With April’s trend facing northbound (see black arrow), and scope to approach Quasimodo resistance at 1.2177 (fixed above daily Quasimodo resistance at 1.2169), buyers may take the wheel.

H1 timeframe:

Heading into the early hours of London on Tuesday, price movement shook hands with familiar demand coming in at 1.2049-1.2061—missing the 100-period simple moving average at 1.2055 by a whisker.

Technicians will note that the 1.21 figure stands in as possible resistance, with a break uncovering resistance at 1.2138. Exploring space south of current demand, on the other hand, stirs a possible bearish theme back to the key figure 1.20.

Momentum remains favoured to the upside, with RSI action reclaiming 50.00+ status—indicates a strengthening of the trend.

Observed levels:

In similar fashion to Tuesday’s technical briefing, the monthly (out of demand at 1.1857-1.1352), daily (above support at 1.2058), and H4 timeframes (finding support within demand at 1.2101-1.2059) suggest buyers are in command and a 1.21 breach is in the offing on the H1 scale.

A 1.21 break may observe short-term traders adopt breakout strategies, targeting at least H1 resistance at 1.2138, followed by Quasimodo resistance at 1.2169 on the daily scale.

April 28th 2021: Greenback Indecisive Ahead of US Federal Reserve Meeting, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since the beginning of 2021, buyers and sellers have been battling for position south of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776 high) and supply from 0.8303-0.8082. Should a bearish scenario unfold, demand at 0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply) is featured to the downside.

With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

With Monday establishing a session top within 2 pips of resistance at 0.7817, Tuesday observed AUD/USD bears make a show and snap a two-day winning streak.

Space north of 0.7817 shines technical light on supply at 0.8045-0.7985 (parked just under monthly supply mentioned above at 0.8303-0.8082). Bearish follow-though below 0.7817, however, swings the pendulum back in the direction of February’s low at 0.7563.

In terms of the RSI oscillator, we remain navigating territory above the 50.00 centreline, with channel resistance, extended from the high 80.12, in sight (plotted below overbought).

H4 timeframe:

Quasimodo resistance at 0.7800 commanded attention on Tuesday, with downside moves supporting a possible drive into 0.7696-0.7715 demand.

Of technical interest is what rests under the aforesaid demand: a Fibonacci cluster at 0.7667-0.7679 which aligns with trendline support, drawn from the low 0.7531.

H1 timeframe:

Breakout buyers above 0.7800, as expected, were likely discouraged about entering long positions ahead of daily resistance at 0.7817. This has bull trap written all over it.

Tuesday pulled candle action deep into the walls of a supply-turned demand at 0.7783-0.7760, cemented just north of the 100-period simple moving average at 0.7757.

0.7725-0.7737 demand rests beneath the noted SMA, with a breach likely to pull the currency pair to 0.77/demand at 0.7679-0.7695.

RSI flow, as you can see, elbowed through the 50.00 centreline and is now engaging with 40.00. This threatens a possible dip into oversold space, in particular support pinned at 19.40.

Observed levels:

With daily resistance present at 0.7817 and H4 showing room to reach 0.7696-0.7715, H1 slicing through demand at 0.7783-0.7760 and the 100-period simple moving average is a possible scenario today, targeting at least H1 demand at 0.7725-0.7737.

April 28th 2021: Greenback Indecisive Ahead of US Federal Reserve Meeting, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and marginally cut through descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.

April, currently down 1.7 percent, is seen attempting to climb back through the breached descending resistance.

Daily timeframe:

Bolstered by rising US Treasury yields, USD/JPY bids strengthened their grip Tuesday, extending recovery gains from demand at 107.58-106.85 (prior supply)—an area sharing chart space with trendline support, etched from the low 102.59, and a 38.2% Fib level at 107.73.

Technical structure reveals supply posted at 109.97-109.18, closely shadowed by a longer-term supply base at 110.94-110.29.

Trend studies show the unit has been trending higher since the beginning of 2021.

RSI movement recently peeked above the 50.00 centreline and is now within striking distance of resistance at 57.00.

H4 timeframe:

Tuesday’s spirited advance not only clawed through resistance at 108.50 (now potential support), upside pressure also established a notable demand at 108.20-108.43. This is effectively the decision point prior to climbing 108.50.

Sustained enthusiasm could have the currency pair knocking on the door of resistance at 108.99.

H1 timeframe:

The 108 retest early US on Monday (accompanied by the 100-period simple moving average) was clearly enough to stimulate bullish appeal. Tuesday, as you can see, powered through supply at 108.57-108.46, movement unlocking a possible continuation advance to the 109 neighbourhood. Prior to reaching 109, however, traders are urged to pencil in a potential 108.57-108.46 retest as a demand.

The key observation out of the RSI oscillator Tuesday was the value entering overbought space and levelling off just south of resistance at 86.43. As of current price, the indicator remains overbought.

Observed levels:

The daily timeframe demonstrating scope to reach for supply at 109.97-109.18, together with H4 structure also displaying room to attack resistance at 108.99, could have H1 candles deliver higher moves to the 109 figure today. However, as underlined above, a retest of H1 supply-turned demand at 108.57-108.46 may materialise prior to navigating higher terrain.

April 28th 2021: Greenback Indecisive Ahead of US Federal Reserve Meeting, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161). February subsequently followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018.

Contained within February’s range, however, March snapped a five-month winning streak and formed what candlestick enthusiasts call an inside candle pattern (represents a short-term consolidation with low volatility). A breakout lower would generally be viewed as a bearish signal.

April trades higher by 0.9 percent.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Unchanged from previous analysis.

GBP/USD chalked up a third successive bullish close on Tuesday, eking out a 0.1 percent gain on the session.

Technical structure to be mindful of can be seen at resistance around 1.4003, closely shadowed by trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.1409. Lower on the curve, 1.3670 bottoms are visible, arranged north of Quasimodo support at 1.3609 and associated Fibonacci confluence (commonly referred to as a Fib cluster).

As for trend, GBP/USD has been trending higher since early 2020.

Momentum studies, according to the RSI indicator, defended space north of the 50.00 centreline in recent movement. Continued interest to the upside points to overbought levels, in particular resistance at 76.14.

H4 timeframe:

Resistance parked at 1.3919, as you can see, has so far contained upside attempts.

To the downside, 1.3809-1.3832 demand made a show in the latter part of last week.

Additional areas of interest are a Quasimodo formation at 1.3750; north of 1.3919, however, shifts interest to Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007.

H1 timeframe:

Short-term flow spent Tuesday engaging the 1.39 figure, coming within a pip of reaching 1.3946-1.3925 supply. Also notable is the 100-period simple moving average at 1.3888, currently serving as dynamic support.

Deprived of resistance above current supply could have the currency pair take aim at the key figure 1.40, in the event a bullish phase overthrows supply. Below 1.39, on the other hand, descending support, drawn from the peak 1.4001, is seen, followed closely by trendline support, etched from the low 1.3668, as well as the 1.38 figure and a 61.8% Fib level at 1.3797/1.618% Fib expansion at 1.3806.

RSI structure reveals the value turned lower just ahead of 60.00 on Tuesday and is seen engaging with the 50.00 centreline. Support resides at 22.91, with resistance plotted at 84.66.

Observed levels:

H4 resistance at 1.3919 holding, could cement a bearish setting on the H1 chart today, pressuring candle action below 1.39 to target at least the upper side of H4 demand at 1.3832.

A move above H1 supply at 1.3946-1.3925, on the other hand, not only unlocks a potential short-term bullish theme to 1.40, the move could have 1.40 sellers make a show, knowing the round number blends with daily resistance at 1.4003.

April 28th 2021: Greenback Indecisive Ahead of US Federal Reserve Meeting, FP Markets

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.




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