EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, has spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, threatening the possibility of moves lower.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
After a period of reluctance (some would say bearish intent due to recently shaping back-to-back shooting star candlestick patterns), EUR/USD extended recent gains off the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745.
We do see some mild tops situated around 1.0887, with a break of this base underlining the April 15 high at 1.0990 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently circulating around 1.1036.
H4 timeframe:
Trendline resistance (1.1147) failed to maintain a presence Wednesday, suggesting additional bullish sentiment could be on the cards if we bring down the 61.8% Fib level at 1.0888. Skies above this base are reasonably blue until reaching an area of stacked supply between 1.1057/1.1013 and 1.1044/1.0966, which aligns with a trendline support-turned resistance (1.0635).
H1 timeframe:
The 1.0850 region on the H1 chart, together with trendline support (1.0727), predominantly contained downside on Wednesday, with price movement recently registering highs at 1.0885. While the possibility of opposition forming off the April 28 high at 1.0888 is certainly there, two supply zones are on the radar at 1.0907/1.0900 and 1.0940/1.0920. Fibonacci studies also show 127.2% and 161.8% Fib extensions at around 1.0909, as well as another 161.8% Fib ext. base at 1.0936 and a 78.6% Fib level at 1.0934 (blue).
Structures of Interest:
Although the two H1 supply zones carry little weight, according to the higher timeframes, the local Fibonacci studies make up for that. Additionally, buy-stops above the April 28 high at 1.0888 may also appeal, as this provides liquidity to sell against. As a result, an intraday rebound from the said H1 supply areas could be seen today.
Short sellers from the H1 zones will likely have their crosshairs fixed on H1 trendline support (1.0727) as the initial target.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery.
The recovery move, alongside April’s advance, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Following a dip to lows at 0.6253 on April 21, AUD/USD has since regained a strong footing, chalking up six successive daily candles and carrying price into the walls of supply from 0.6618/0.6544. It should also be emphasised that this area comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642. In addition, the RSI indicator is seen fast approaching its overbought level.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, has remained a focal point on the H4 timeframe for quite some time. However, in recent sessions we have seen a supply zone at 0.6540/0.6464 taken out, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm from sellers.
Despite the above, the said pattern, technically, remains valid until breaking the X point at 0.6684. Additionally, we have, according to daily analysis, recently entered the parapets of supply at 0.6618/0.6544, which could prompt sellers to make an appearance.
H1 timeframe:
Heading into Wednesday’s close, the H1 candlesticks drove into an area of stacked supply between 0.6612/0.6543 and unseated the 0.6550 level.
Trendline support (0.6289) remains in play, as does the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), drifting higher since April 23.
Indicator-based traders may also want to pencil in bearish divergence out of overbought territory from the RSI (black line).
Structures of Interest:
As stated in recent analysis, monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
The engulfed H4 supply at 0.6540/0.6464 has placed a question mark on the current H4 harmonic Gartley pattern, though daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 could save the day. What’s more, we also have stacked supply recently making its debut on the H1 timeframe at 0.6612/0.6543.
As a result of the above, although upside appears strong, this market emphasises overbought conditions, therefore it could be time for a pullback.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April so far has been pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand from 105.70/106.66 received price action on Tuesday after consolidating south of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 108.28 since mid-April. Wednesday, as you can see, continued to flirt with the upper boundary of the noted demand.
Should the said demand abandon its position, we can look forward to demand plotted at 100.68/101.85 eventually making an appearance.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The week has witnessed a bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07 take hold of H4 action after having its lower boundary taken out at the beginning of the week. Traditionally, take-profit targets are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding this value to the breakout point (black arrows – 104.89).
In recent sessions, we’ve also seen demand at 106.75/107.22 surrender its position, indicating the possibility of fresh moves emerging to demand at 105.75/105.17.
H1 timeframe:
After establishing resistance off 108 on April 23, intraday movement has since been entrenched within a descending channel pattern between 108.04/107.04.
Aside from an early sell-off Wednesday, the session echoed a somewhat lacklustre tone off 106.50. Newly formed supply exists around 106.90/106.80, along with nearby channel resistance seated just south of the base. Above these levels, demand-turned supply at 106.99/107.16, an area which houses the round number 107 and the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), is also clearly visible. Sub 106.50, however, traders will be looking for 106 to surface.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price recently crossed paths with demand at 105.70/106.66, though bulls have yet to make a show.
The H4 close out of the current bearish pennant pattern and recent break of demand at 106.75/107.22 has potentially cleared downside to H4 demand from 105.75/105.17. Going forward, therefore, traders may watch for 106.50 to give up ground on the H1 timeframe for possible bearish themes to 106 and beyond.
A test of H1 supply at 106.90/106.80 could also be something to keep an eye out for. Whipsawing through channel resistance in order to reach the said zone may trip buy stops, consequently providing liquidity for short selling.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play as we head into the closing stages of April. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191). Traders will also note price is currently trading in the shape of a doji indecision candle.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Price action on the daily timeframe currently trades in no man’s land, hovering between a demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns closely with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2643, and demand from 1.2212/1.2075.
Sustained bidding from 1.2247 (April 21 low) could lead to price action forming the D-leg to an ABCD approach (orange) that completes around 1.2729.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 1.2622/1.2517 remains a dominant fixture on the H4 timeframe, threatening the possibility of moves to demand at 1.2297/1.2350 and 1.2147/1.2257.
H1 timeframe:
In Wednesday’s analysis, 1.24 was stated as a possible support, with a whipsaw of the level into demand at 1.2379/1.2393 expected. As you can see, price did as anticipated, aided by the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), and has since rallied more than 70 pips.
Traders long the said demand likely have eyes on 1.25 as the next upside target, with a break exposing nearby supply posted at 1.2526/1.2511, an area that’s capped upside since mid-April.
Structures of Interest:
Traders long this market will likely be looking to take profits around 1.25.
A fakeout north of 1.25 into H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2511 may be of interest to sellers, particularly if we close back beneath 1.25 in strong fashion. What’s also interesting is the H1 supply is seen glued to the lower boundary of daily supply at 1.2622/1.2517.
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