EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The euro nudged to a third successive monthly gain against the US dollar in July, adding nearly 5 percent. The move toppled long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) and made contact with the upper border of supply from 1.1857/1.1352.
This argues a move to the upside may be on the horizon, with trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1641) on the radar as the next upside target. Also worth pointing out, though, is the primary trend still remains intact, underlining a southerly course since July 2008.
August currently trades up by 1.3 percent.
Daily timeframe:
Bullish forces have yet to fade in EUR/USD, elevated amid unrelenting USD weakness.
Candle action, as you can see, moved towards channel resistance (1.1909) and fusing supply at 1.2012/1.1937. 1.2095 resistance is likely to shift into focus should we continue to discover higher terrain, whilst a pullback throws light on channel support (1.1695).
The RSI indicator currently tests overbought terrain and is producing bearish divergence.
H4 timeframe:
Yesterday’s rather vigorous breach of supply at 1.1938/1.1909 during US trading could have price action work its way to clean resistance at 1.1988 today. Yet, before climbing to the aforesaid level, a dip to newly formed demand at 1.1828/1.1868 may be in the offing.
H1 timeframe:
Heading into US trade Tuesday, buyers stepped into the fight, following a 1.19 retest, and crossed paths with 1.1950 resistance as well as channel resistance (1.1861). This pulled the RSI value deep into overbought territory, plotting peaks at 81.60.
Newly formed demand is also present around 1.1896/1.1910, housing the round number 1.19 within.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price remains on reasonably firm footing as the timeframe wrestles with the possibility of higher levels north of supply at 1.1857/1.1352. Conversely, daily supply at 1.2012/1.1937 recently entered the picture, along with channel resistance.
Having monthly price absorb supply, daily supply is unlikely to deliver much of a down move. This, as well as current H4 supply having its upper edge breached and the current trend facing northbound, could swing H1 demand at 1.1896/1.1910 into the light as a platform buyers may consider today.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June and July’s follow-through, witnessed supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) abandon its position. Concluding July higher by 3.5 percent, buyers appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).
Despite removing trendline resistance, the market’s primary trend still points south, demonstrating a series of lower lows and lower highs since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The technical landscape on the daily timeframe remains concentrated around the supply 0.7264/0.7224, given its entire range was tested on Tuesday. This echoes the possibility of a pop to nearby supply at 0.7346/0.7282. Yet, sellers entering the frame could reignite interest in support at 0.7067.
With reference to the RSI indicator, the value is toying with overbought levels and simultaneously producing bearish divergence.
H4 timeframe:
Demand at 0.7222/0.7192 (prior supply) made its way into the limelight Tuesday after powering through supply at 0.7246/0.7227, an area extended from February 2019. This may have traders work towards supply at 0.7300/0.7282, taken from December 2018.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday breakout buyers (as well as any sellers attempting to fade the level) were squeezed out of the market on Tuesday after price whipsawed through the 0.7250 resistance to highs at 0.7264. Clearance of 0.7250 today shines light on 0.73 as a possible target.
A steep ascending trendline support (0.7132) inhabits territory close by, with a break forecasting moves to the 0.72 neighbourhood.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price sweeping through supply and associated trendline resistance has likely aroused interest from longer-term buyers. Buyers currently test the mettle of supply at 0.7264/0.7224 on the daily timeframe, with a break throwing light on supply at 0.7346/0.7282. H4 reveals scope to manoeuvre as far north as supply from 0.7300/0.7282, while H1 debates whether to overrun 0.7250 or challenge trendline support (0.7132).
The lacklustre response out of daily supply so far, together with the monthly, daily and H4 timeframes suggesting higher moves, could either see H1 candles test trendline support or break 0.7250, both of which may invite fresh buying.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
April, May and June were pretty uneventful, with the latter wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern. July, nonetheless, sunk nearly 2 percent, testing the lower boundary of the descending triangle, while August currently trades lower by 0.40 percent.
Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Friday’s response out of supply from 107.58/106.85 invited additional bearish sentiment in the early stages of trade this week, down more than 1 percent as of current levels.
A drop-base-rally demand area at 105.25/105.71 entered the crosshairs yesterday, and had its lower range tested. Letting go of this area today throws light on support at 104.62, taken from the monthly timeframe (descending triangle support).
The RSI value also recently gave up its 50.00 centreline and is poised to reconnect with oversold levels.
H4 timeframe:
Tuesday’s flow accelerated to the downside, slipping through demand coming in from 105.92/106.16 and engaging demand at 105.06/105.30 (prior supply), an area which contained downside at the beginning of August and fashioned a near-200 pip advance.
Monthly support at 104.62 lies in wait should additional bearish sentiment develop today.
H1 timeframe:
Against the negative backdrop, we can see from the H1 chart that a mild upturn emerged amid US trade yesterday out of a support area from 105.20/30 (yellow). Though 105.50 could hinder upside attempts, prudent traders will also recognise the resistance area lurking at 105.80/105.63, with a break unmasking a potential approach to 106.
With respect to the RSI value, mild bullish divergence is seen out of oversold space.
Structures of Interest:
Given the DXY exploring areas south of the chart, this may weigh on any recovery attempts out of daily demand at 105.25/105.71 and by extension, H4 demand at 105.06/105.30 (glued to the underside of daily demand) and the H1 support area at 105.20/105.30 (inhabits the upper range of H4 demand). Yet, traders will still likely be watching for signs of bullish intent.
Taking out the lower ledge of H4 demand at 105.06 ignites potential intraday bearish strategies back to monthly support at 104.62.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
GBP/USD finished higher by 5.5 percent in July, leading to long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) abandoning its position.
Despite the primary trend facing lower since early 2008, the break of current trendline resistance could have buyers work towards another prominent trendline resistance (2.1161) over the coming weeks.
August currently trades higher by 1.3 percent.
Daily timeframe:
After squeezing through the 200-day simple moving average (July 21), currently fluctuating around 1.2715, and toppling supply at 1.3021/1.2844, price action spent the majority of August attempting to find support off the latter as a demand. Tuesday, however, took on a robust bullish stance, swallowing resistance at 1.3201 and closing the session within a stone’s throw from a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.3264. Overrunning the aforesaid Fib base shifts focus to another 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.3408.
What’s also interesting is the RSI inhabits overbought space, printing mild bearish divergence.
H4 timeframe:
Rallying more than 1 percent on Tuesday, not only formed a healthy demand area at 1.3074/1.3118, upside momentum also closed within shouting distance of supply found at 1.3301/1.3273. However, before connecting with this area, a retest at daily support from 1.3201 could be on the cards.
H1 timeframe:
The recent upturn pulled intraday candles through supply at 1.3150/1.3127 and the 1.32 resistance, swerving price action into 1.3250 resistance heading into the close of trade.
Territory north of 1.3250 appears reasonably clear until 1.33 on the H1, though the underside of H4 supply at 1.3301/1.3273 could hinder things, as could the 161.8% Fib ext. level nearby at 1.3264 on the daily timeframe.
Structures of Interest:
Although monthly toppled trendline resistance, daily price faces resistance by way of the 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.3264. This, as briefly touched on above, may hamper breakout strategies above 1.3250 (H1), as might the lower edge of H4 supply at 1.3273.
The above, therefore, may eventually call for a pullback to 1.32, a level which unites with H1 trendline support (prior resistance – 1.3125). This area may entice active buying in light of 1.32 also representing daily support, along with room to push higher on monthly and H4 timeframes.
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