EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The euro nudged to a third successive monthly gain against the US dollar in July, adding nearly 5 percent. The move toppled long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) and made contact with the upper border of supply from 1.1857/1.1352.
This argues a move to the upside may be on the horizon, with trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1641) on the radar as the next upside target. Also worth pointing out, though, is the primary trend still remains intact, underlining a southerly course since July 2008.
August currently trades up by 0.6 percent.
Daily timeframe:
Bullish forces faded on Wednesday, pressured lower amid increased USD demand.
Technical action slipped from channel resistance (1.1909) and fusing supply at 1.2012/1.1937, snapping a six-day winning streak and throwing light on channel support (1.1695).
The RSI indicator currently fades overbought terrain and is producing bearish divergence.
H4 timeframe:
Leaving resistance at 1.1988 untouched, newly formed rally-base-rally demand at 1.1828/1.1868 made a show Wednesday, with a break uncovering another layer of demand priced in at 1.1771/1.1794.
H1 timeframe:
Heading into US trading on Wednesday, the euro sunk through a number of key intraday supports, including demand at 1.1896/1.1910 (housing the round number 1.19 within), channel support (1.1712) and the 100-period simple moving average. Additionally, the RSI value probed oversold status and is currently chalking up hidden bullish divergence.
Recent action not only fashioned a supply zone at 1.1894/1.1876, it also shines light on demand at 1.1806/1.1818, as well as the round number 1.18.
Structures of Interest:
The reaction from daily channel resistance/supply will likely overwhelm H4 demand at 1.1828/1.1868 today for H4 demand at 1.1771/1.1794, an area that inhabits terrain just under the 1.18 handle on the H1. As such, a whipsaw through the 1.18 vicinity could be seen today, collecting sell-stops and filling buy orders out of H4 demand at 1.1771/1.1794 for a run higher.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June and July’s follow-through, witnessed supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) abandon its position. Concluding July higher by 3.5 percent, buyers appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).
Despite removing trendline resistance, the market’s primary trend still points south, demonstrating a series of lower lows and lower highs since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
By means of a daily bearish outside day reversal, confirmed by RSI bearish divergence a touch south of overbought levels, a spirited decline took hold yesterday just ahead of supply at 0.7346/0.7282.
Further dips will find initial support at around the 0.7067 region.
H4 timeframe:
As of current price, after leaving supply at 0.7300/0.7282 (taken from December 2018) unopposed, the pair is closing in on trendline support (0.6832), an ascending platform sharing space with a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7170.
Brushing aside the aforesaid trendline today could have buyers and sellers butt heads at demand taken from 0.7082/0.7106 and intersecting trendline support (0.6776).
H1 timeframe:
Wednesday’s tumble moved through 0.72 support (and intersecting 100-period simple moving average) to cross paths with trendline support (0.7109).
Demand at 0.7164/0.7156 inhabits terrain just north of 0.7150 support, both of which mark achievable downside targets in the event of a trendline breach today.
In terms of the RSI value, the oscillator nosedived into oversold terrain and is, at the time of writing, producing hidden bullish divergence.
Structures of Interest:
Before the market decides on its next path, whipsawing through current H1 trendline support is certainly not out of the question today. Technical studies reveal H4 trendline support (0.6832) rests just under the H1 base, a few pips ahead of H1 demand at 0.7164/0.7156.
Breaking to higher levels and conquering 0.72 resistance swings H1 supply at 0.7236/0.7222 on the radar.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
April, May and June were pretty uneventful, with the latter wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern. July, nonetheless, sunk nearly 2 percent, testing the lower boundary of the descending triangle, while August currently trades higher by 0.20 percent.
Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Friday’s response out of supply from 107.58/106.85 invited additional bearish sentiment in the early stages of trade this week, steering action to a drop-base-rally demand area at 105.25/105.71.
Braced amid a strong USD bid across the board yesterday, the session put up a substantial bullish outside day reversal from the aforesaid demand area, despite having its lower edge clipped. Letting go of this zone positions the spotlight back on support at 104.62, taken from the monthly timeframe (descending triangle support).
H4 timeframe:
Demand at 105.06/105.30 (prior supply), an area which contained downside at the beginning of August and fashioned a near-200 pip advance, prompted a healthy bid Wednesday and elevated USD/JPY to supply at 105.92/106.16 (prior demand).
Dethroning the aforesaid supply today leads to a possible test of supply at 106.65/106.43. This is a drop-base-drop formation, boasting strong downside momentum out of its base.
H1 timeframe:
106 resistance relinquished its position in recent hours, with price addressing the 100-period simple moving average and consequently retesting 106 as support.
106.19 resistance lies close by, with a break highlighting supply at 106.49/106.35 (glued to the underside of H4 supply at 106.65/106.43). Also worth underlining on this timeframe is demand at 105.64/105.79. Not only does this area rest on top of another demand at 105.55/105.73, it is an area where a decision was made to take 106.
With respect to the RSI value we recently entered overbought waters.
Structures of Interest:
The daily timeframe’s bullish candlestick pattern is likely to make life hard for sellers out of H4 supply at 105.92/106.16. The retest at 106 on the H1 timeframe, therefore, could spark additional upside today, moves that overwhelm H1 resistance at 109.19 and test H1 supply from 106.49/106.35.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
GBP/USD finished higher by 5.5 percent in July, leading to long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) abandoning its position.
Despite the primary trend facing lower since early 2008, the break of current trendline resistance could have buyers work towards another prominent trendline resistance (2.1161) over the coming weeks.
August currently trades higher by 0.3 percent.
Daily timeframe:
After mildly breaching resistance at 1.3201 Tuesday, a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.3264 welcomed price action on Wednesday and delivered a notable bearish candle that closed at session lows, a move shadowed by RSI bearish divergence.
1.3021/1.2844 remains stationed as demand, with a violation uncovering the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2715.
H4 timeframe:
Supply found at 1.3301/1.3273 was left untouched on Wednesday as cable delivered notable downside amidst a resurgence in USD demand.
Consequently, demand at 1.3074/1.3118 made an entrance, tracked closely by trendline support (1.2982) and stacked demand from 1.2948/1.2910 – 1.2945/1.2989 (and intersecting trendline support [1.2259]).
H1 timeframe:
Towing to deeper water yesterday witnessed a number of intraday technical supports give way.
1.31 support, however, has been received reasonably well (albeit dipping to lows at 1.3090), likely containing enough oomph to retest supply at 1.3150/1.3127, aligning with the 100-period simple moving average.
With reference to the RSI indicator, traders will note we challenged oversold water and recently exited the range.
Structures of Interest:
Although monthly toppled trendline resistance, daily price faces resistance by way of the 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.3264. This, as you can see, hampered breakout strategies above 1.3250 (H1).
Going forward, having seen daily price with room to push to 1.3021 (upper edge of demand), a 1.3150/1.3127 retest on the H1 today could persuade sellers to extend downside (this assumes H4 demand at 1.3074/1.3118 and 1.31 on the H1 abandons position).
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