EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm. This prompted an extension in June to highs at 1.1422, adding 1.2% despite running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
Interestingly, July, currently trading +1.9%, is crossing paths with the aforesaid trendline resistance.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval). It’s typical, in the case of bearish bat formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
After touching 1.1168 (June 19) a bid has been observed, which witnessed recent trade retest the aforesaid PRZ. While this may cause sellers to panic, do consider the bat pattern remains valid until the X point is taken.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Overhead, supply at 1.1470/1.1447, an area drawn from February 2019, continues to offer an upper limit on the H4 chart, closely bolstered by another area of supply at 1.1495/1.1472.
Holding under supply has demand at 1.1324/1.1345 pinned as the next point of consideration, aligning with neighbouring trendline support (1.1185). This assumes we pass last Thursday’s low at 1.1370.
H1 timeframe:
After failing to secure position above 1.1450 resistance early Europe, Monday dipped to the 100-period simple moving average, missing 1.14 by a hair before recovering a large portion of earlier downside.
Travelling through 1.1450 could lead to a push for the 1.15 neighbourhood.
Structures of Interest:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and neighbouring long-term trendline resistance is likely to eventually hamper upside in this market. The daily PRZ between 1.1462/1.1395 re-entered the frame last week. Although buyers appear to have the upper hand here for now, monthly structure may help convince sellers to make an entrance.
H4 supply at 1.1470/1.1447 and 1.1495/1.1472 are key zones for sellers. This may draw sellers to 1.1450 resistance again, given the level joins with the lower ledge of H4 supply at 1.1447.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in July, particularly as intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) demonstrates signs of giving way.
Despite this, the market’s primary trend points south, demonstrating a series of lower lows and lower highs since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Since ousting resistance at 0.6931 the level has been featured as support, with two nearby trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671) visible to the upside.
Moves under 0.6931 positions support at 0.6755 in the frame, while exploring higher levels has 0.7197 resistance to target.
In terms of the RSI oscillator, the value has been hovering south of overbought levels since mid-June.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Supply at 0.7058/0.7029 is a base that deserves attention, an area that held price lower last Wednesday and an active zone since the beginning of the year. Traders will also note a break of the aforesaid supply leads candles to nearby supply at 0.7102/0.7018.
Well-grounded support exists at 0.6926, located a few pips under trendline support (0.6776) and forms a close connection to daily support at 0.6931.
H1 timeframe:
Recent intraday activity travelled through 0.70 resistance, a widely watched psychological level, and also conquered local resistance at 0.7011.
The biggest challenge facing buyers on the H1 is possible resistance emerging from the 0.7037 high (July 15), and 0.7050 resistance.
Indicator-based traders will also want to note the RSI oscillator is seen fast approaching overbought levels.
Structures of Interest:
H1 traders considering longs north of 0.7011 may find the lower ledge of H4 supply challenging (0.7029). On the other hand, though, the previous reaction out of the noted supply on July 15 failed to produce much of a downside move, suggesting potential seller weakness. This, coupled with room to advance on the daily timeframe and monthly revealing the possibility of closing above supply at 0.7029/0.6664, could be enough to pull things through current H4 supply.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
April and May were pretty uneventful, with June also wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern.
Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Demand at 105.70/106.66 remains in focus on the daily timeframe. Although a reasonably hardwearing zone since early May, buyers appear to be lacking spirit. The previous reaction on June 23, as you can see, failed to reach the 200-day simple moving average at 108.35 before rotating lower, emphasising buyer weakness.
Moves below current demand re-opens the risk of a return to support at 105.01.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Recent developments on the H4 timeframe reveal price movement to be carving out a consolidation between supply at 107.60/107.42 and demand coming in from 106.39/106.64.
Traders will also note the latter comes with a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 106.67 and is situated within the upper boundary of daily demand from 105.70/106.66.
Outside of the aforesaid range, peaks around 107.77 and the 108.09 level represent resistance, while through demand we can see support at 105.99.
H1 timeframe:
Trendline support (106.66) made an entrance heading into US trade Monday, as price movement whipsawed through the 100-period simple moving average. 107 support is located close by, while a turn higher may witness 107.50 call for attention. Additional support can also be found at 106.70.
Structures of Interest:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Daily demand at 105.70/106.66 recently re-joined the fight, albeit echoing a fragile tone.
Supply at 107.60/107.42 and demand from 106.39/106.64 on the H4 are likely to remain on the radar, particularly the latter owing to the confluence it brings to the table. Therefore, 106.70 H1 support could be a level worth featuring on the watchlist, should we nudge past 107.
Alternatively, H1 buyers may favour 107 for a bounce on the basis we’ll likely trip sell-stop liquidity under current H1 trendline support.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 and long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) offers clear structure to work with on the monthly timeframe, with the latter prompting a notable upper shadow in June.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008, placing 1.1904/1.2235 support in a vulnerable position.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers have been mingling below the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2697 since July 9. Yesterday’s action, however, produced a dominant bull candle, driving things to within a stone’s throw away from the aforesaid simple moving average.
Demand at 1.2192/1.2361 remains in view, as does supply from 1.3021/1.2844, situated above the aforesaid simple moving average.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
After splitting channel support (1.2257) on the H4 timeframe, two core areas became available, demand at 1.2462/1.2506 and supply from 1.2720/1.2682. The former already made its presence known last Tuesday, generously rebounding price by way of a bullish engulfing candle. The latter, thanks to Monday’s bullish ascent, could make an entrance today and complete an ABCD bearish configuration at 1.2685.
H1 timeframe:
Monday settled north of 1.2650 resistance, following a decisive push through 1.2550 resistance, the 100-period simple moving average and 1.26 level.
Technicians also may find use in noting 1.2650 was recently retested as support and produced a hammer candlestick signal, considered a bullish pattern. GBP/USD swinging higher from this point has peaks at 1.2685 in view, followed by the 1.27 level.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price is currently sandwiched between trendline resistance and support from 1.1904/1.2235, though the former is close to welcoming the pair.
The 200-day simple moving average at 1.2697 is on the radar as potential resistance from the daily timeframe.
H1 candles are signalling the possibility of a continuation move north of 1.2650 today. Should the pair advance, intraday buyers may look to get involved. The H4 ABCD completion at 1.2685 represents an initial target, followed by the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2697. The target areas, encased within H4 supply at 1.2720/1.2682, also represent potential reversal zones for sellers.
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