EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of demand from 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs, with June extending gains and recently reconnecting with the lower shelf of supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Last week had EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern (comprised of an 88.6% Fib ret level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 [red oval]), and rotate lower into the week’s end. Price has so far remained under the aforesaid area this week.
It’s common to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point, in this case at 1.1495. Common targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib ret levels (derived from legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively. Note in between traders will also have to contend with the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1025.
In addition to the bearish configuration, the RSI indicator recently exited overbought territory.
H4 timeframe:
Buyers and sellers are currently squaring off at familiar support from 1.1226, withstanding a recent downside attempt to lows at 1.1207.
Having seen Monday’s recovery off 1.1226 fail to deliver much in terms of upside (blue), sellers may flex again today and throw some life into demand at 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply). Another area that must be monitored is fresh demand coming in from 1.1115/1.1139.
H1 timeframe:
Mid-way through London trade Wednesday, 1.1250 relinquished ground leaving price free to probe fresh weekly lows ahead of the 1.12 level (a notable support by and of itself). Buyers took over into the close and threw light on 1.1250 as possible resistance, a level that combines with a local trendline resistance (1.1353).
A whipsaw through the aforesaid levels cannot be ruled out, in favour of the 100-period simple moving average currently circling at 1.1277.
Structures of Interest:
Response from monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, along with the daily harmonic bearish bat pattern suggesting lower levels, places a question mark on H4 support at 1.1226.
On account of the above, 1.1250 offers intraday confluence (with trendline resistance) to consider as a sell zone today.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension as well as June’s follow-through has seen price test the mettle of monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664. Technically, the area benefits from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe recently squared off under two trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), eventually shipping price through support from 0.6931. Monday returned with a bullish outside day formation, forcing a retest at the underside of 0.6931 on Tuesday that delivered little to the downside Wednesday by way of an indecision candle.
Support at 0.6755 also remains in view.
It may also interest traders to note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6664 is in the process of flattening/marginally turning higher, following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
AUD/USD found trendline resistance (prior support – 0.6856) to be welcoming on Tuesday, a level joining with a 61.8% Fib ret level at 0.6947. Sellers struggled to pull the currency pair lower Wednesday, putting forward a mild pullback into the close.
A pop lower today, nonetheless, could swing for demand at 0.6773/0.6814, perhaps forming an approach by way of an ABCD pattern. There is a possibility we could also dethrone current demand, in favour of drawing in daily support at 0.6755.
H1 timeframe:
Supply at 0.6932/0.6918, as expected, put forward a defence Wednesday, an area located just above the 0.69 handle. This area, alongside the 100-period simple moving average at 0.6875, presents an intraday range to work with today.
Outside of this area, 0.6950 represents resistance and 0.6850 comes in as support.
Structures of Interest:
Combined, monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664, along with monthly trendline resistance, and daily resistance at 0.6931, is likely to send price beneath the H1 range today, perhaps unlocking intraday selling opportunities.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remained subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98, with June currently off best levels, down 0.7%.
Areas outside of the noted triangle pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand at 105.70/106.66 welcomed price action late last week and, as you can see, put forth a bullish phase Friday. Despite the recovery, impetus is lacking, threatening a dive into the aforesaid demand.
To the upside, the 200-day simple moving average at 108.40 can be seen as the next possible resistance.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Supply at 107.51/107.76 (prior demand), albeit initially echoing a fragile tone, sent USD/JPY southbound yesterday. Support at 106.91 is ripe for a retest, though shifting lower will see price action greet demand at 106.49/106.66, an area fixed at the top edge of daily demand at 105.70/106.66.
H1 timeframe:
Late trade stepped through the 100-period simple moving average and crossed paths with the 107 handle. Traders will note this level held firm as support at the beginning of the week. Interestingly, a whipsaw through 107 could materialise into H4 support at 106.91.
Structures of Interest:
Key focus this morning is on a possible fakeout under 107 into H4 support at 106.91. A H1 close back above 107 might be sufficient to entice a healthy recovery today. Failure to hold here, nonetheless, could see breakout sellers swing price to the top edge of daily demand at 106.66.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains healthy in June, with the month currently recording gains of more than 1.7% despite facing long-term trendline resistance (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Sterling faces the risk of further declines according to the daily chart, as Wednesday held a mildly bearish tone following Tuesday’s retest at the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2683.
Fresh selling shifts focus to demand at 1.2192/1.2361, an area not only fastened to the top edge of monthly support but also considered the decision point to break 1.2647 (April 14 high).
Yet, in the event buyers move in, supply at 1.3021/1.2844 could be thrown onto the radar.
H4 timeframe:
As emphasised in Wednesday’s analysis, research noted H4 was likely to address demand at 1.2476/1.2526, an area boasting a close connection with a 38.2% Fib ret level at 1.2534.
As you can see, buyers are currently lining up a defence off the aforesaid demand. Any upside from here may find opposition around resistance at 1.2629. Higher than this level would raise a few eyebrows, having seen monthly and daily price reflecting a bearish tone.
Should 1.2476/1.2526 fail, neighbouring demand rests at 1.2374/1.2427, bringing with it trendline support (1.2075).
H1 timeframe:
Since establishing position under 1.26 on Tuesday, price has been feasting on the underside of the 100-period simple moving average.
It was mentioned in Wednesday’s analysis that demand (upper blue arrow) around 1.2565 was likely consumed on Tuesday. Lower demand (lower blue arrow) around 1.2535 also gave the impression buy orders were collected soon after forming. As you can see, buyers are indeed putting forward a weak tone with traders likely betting on a dip to 1.25.
Structures of Interest:
1.25 makes for an interesting downside target as well as a platform to consider intraday buying opportunities from, having seen the round number located within H4 demand at 1.2476/1.2526. However, there is the possibility traders waiting for 1.25 to make an entrance may be left stranded as H4 demand already made a show.
Between 1.2629/1.26 offers buyers not only a take-profit target, but also an area to consider bearish signals, due to higher-timeframe analysis pointing to lower ground.
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