Note—Charts provided by Trading View
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March remains toying with the upper side of 1.1857/1.1352 demand, lower by 1.1 percent.
Price action traders will have noted the demand’s entrance, possibly viewing it as a bullish signal.
A decisive rebound from the aforesaid demand shifts attention back to the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks and a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641). An extension to the downside, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.6038.
In terms of trend, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.
Daily timeframe:
Largely unchanged from previous analysis –
Since March 11, buyers and sellers have been battling for position around support priced in at 1.1887.
Monday, however, witnessed buyers stage a one-sided recovery, with the US dollar index fading best levels.
Additional technical elements visible around 1.1887 are a 127.2% Fib projection at 1.1843, a 100% Fib extension at 1.1855 (harmonic traders will note this represents an AB=CD formation), and a 200-day simple moving average at 1.1846. North of 1.1887, technical framework reveals a 38.2% Fib level at 1.2021—considered by many chartists as an initial target out of AB=CD patterns.
In the context of trend on this timeframe, the unit has faced north since 2020 despite the 2021 retracement so far.
H4 timeframe:
H4 pattern traders will note the currency pair dipped a toe in waters south of a double-top pattern’s neckline at 1.1882, following the modest bearish opening gap. However, price FAILED to CLOSE beneath the level, therefore technical sellers are unlikely to have committed here.
Subsequent action observed Europe’s shared currency rally against the buck, throwing 1.1992 back in the pot as potential resistance.
Space beneath the double-top pattern’s neckline shines light on a nearby support between 1.1818 and 1.1860 (Quasimodo support at 1.1818, a 161.8% Fib projection at 1.1835, and a 100% Fib extension at 1.1860).
H1 timeframe:
1.1881/1.1865 demand welcomed price action early Monday and provided a platform for buyers to overthrow the 1.19 figure. Following a swift retest of the psychological level (a common theme after a round number breach which, in this case, shaped interesting demand at 1.1894/1.1906), price charged above the 100-period simple moving average and also retested the dynamic value before sailing to tops just south of 1.1950 resistance.
Interestingly, RSI movement claimed resistance at 54.40 yesterday and is currently hovering just ahead of overbought space.
Observed levels:
For those who read Monday’s technical briefing you may recall the following (italics):
Knowing we’re working with a higher timeframe bullish vibe this week, H1 buyers could attempt to hold 1.19 and dethrone the 100-period simple moving average. Alternatively, a dip into H1 demand from 1.1851/1.1867 may emerge before a bullish theme forms as it shares space with H4 support at 1.1818/1.1860.
As evident from the H1, we did manage to take on the 100-period simple moving average on Monday.
Going forward, H1 demand at 1.1894/1.1906 is likely to draw interest today (should we retreat and test the zone), in light of the higher timeframe’s bullish tone and room to move higher on the H4.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
February finished considerably off best levels, establishing what many candlestick fans call a shooting star pattern—a bearish signal found at peaks. What’s interesting was February came within striking distance of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776), sheltered under supply from 0.8303/0.8082.
March, as you can probably see, trades higher by 0.5 percent, and remains within February’s range.
Should sellers regain consciousness, demand at 0.7029/0.6664 is in view (prior supply).
With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).
Daily timeframe:
Largely unchanged from previous analysis –
The daily chart’s technical construction reveals a trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 0.5506. Despite the trendline support breach early March, the chart has yet to form a DECISIVE lower low. For that reason, the trend remains to the upside.
A bearish scenario taking shape nudges February’s low at 0.7563 in view, with subsequent downside perhaps taking aim at demand from 0.7453/0.7384 (previous supply).
RSI followers will note the value continues to test the grip of the 50.00 centreline, following 42.00 lows formed March 8.
H4 timeframe:
Demand at 0.7696/0.7715, once again, isolated downside attempts on Monday, consequently generating a moderate recovery move. Continued interest to the upside today elbows demand-turned supply at 0.7848/0.7867 (housing a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7859 and a 127.2% Fib projection at 0.7849) back into the light.
H1 timeframe:
The Quasimodo formation at 0.7710, alongside a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7708, served buyers well as support in opening trade Monday. Despite subsequent attempts to probe lower and test 0.77, bids remained solid, eventually paving the way north to challenge the 100-period simple moving average heading into the US session.
Assuming tops around 0.7772 prove fragile, rupturing the aforesaid SMA could lead the currency pair back to 0.78.
Also worth taking on board, of course, is the RSI climbing above resistance plotted at 54.51, a level demonstrating strong historical significance as an S/R base. This, assuming the value holds higher, suggests further momentum to the upside could be on the cards.
Observed levels:
For those who read Monday’s technical briefing you may recall the following (italics):
H1 Quasimodo support at 0.7710 and the 0.77 figure, housed within H4 demand at 0.7696/0.7715, delivers nearby technical confluence this week.
As you can see, the market did indeed discover a floor off 0.7710 and reach for the 100-period simple moving average on the H1 which may prove difficult for buyers today. Nevertheless, should price clear offers around this region, increased upside could be seen, targeting 0.78.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March, up by 2.2 percent, is closing in on descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66. A spirited break of the latter swings the technical pendulum in favour of further upside.
To the downside, support inhabits 101.70.
Daily timeframe:
Largely unchanged from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers continue to square off just south of Quasimodo resistance from 109.38. Of particular interest is the Quasimodo formation fusing closely with the monthly timeframe’s descending resistance.
While the aforesaid Quasimodo cannot be disregarded, recognising supply resides at 110.94/110.29 is important, as a run for stops above the Quasimodo head (blue arrow—109.85) could materialise.
Areas visible to the downside are support at 107.64—a previous Quasimodo resistance—and supply-turned demand at 107.58/106.85.
With respect to trend, 2021 has pointed to the upside.
Based on the RSI oscillator, the value remains within overbought space, beneath resistance at 83.02 (the value exiting overbought will add more conviction).
H4 timeframe:
Largely unchanged from previous analysis –
The Quasimodo formation at 109.16 proved stubborn resistance last week, shutting down any attempts to shake hands with supply at 109.59/109.37. Notably, the supply houses daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38.
This has drawn demand at 108.31/108.50 to attention, followed by support at 108.09 and fresh demand parked at 107.81/108.01.
H1 timeframe:
Demand at 108.67/108.78 (considered an important zone given it was here a decision was made to initially break through 109 offers) continued to echo signs of weakness Monday. Having its lower side clipped twice last week and again yesterday, as well as H1 defending the underside of 109 and 100-period simple moving average, this suggests downside risks are building.
Below demand signals the pair could test support at 108.36, a base withstanding a number of downside attempts earlier in March.
RSI followers will also acknowledge trendline resistance is close by, despite the value pursuing terrain north of the 50.00 centreline at the moment.
Observed levels:
Unchanged from previous analysis –
Current focus on the bigger picture is daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38 and monthly descending resistance. However, as aired in recent analysis, before sellers attempt to put in an appearance, a whipsaw to daily supply at 110.94/110.29 could develop.
Shorter term, noting H1 demand from 108.67/108.78 is perhaps fragile, H4 and H1 charts indicate price is bound for H4 demand at 108.31/108.50, and possibly H1 support at 108.36 seen within. Therefore, another retest of 109 may be welcomed by sellers.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161). February followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018. March currently trades lower by 0.5 percent, contained within February’s range.
Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).
Daily timeframe:
Trendline support, taken from the low 1.1409, remains a major theme on the daily scale. Despite an earnest attempt to hold higher earlier last week, the trendline support came under pressure Monday. Support coming in at 1.3755 is a level worth pencilling in should the trendline support cave, while territory beneath 1.3755 elbows Quasimodo support at 1.3609 in the line of fire.
The trend has faced higher since early 2020.
The RSI indicator continues to test the mettle of support between 46.21 and 49.16, with the value trading below the 50.00 centreline since Friday.
H4 timeframe:
1.3852 support and additional support, in the form of a 61.8% Fib level from 1.3829, entered the fray on Monday and so far provided buyers a floor to work with. Areas beyond here to be conscious of are demand at 1.3761/1.3789, as well as demand fixed at 1.3730/1.3749.
Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007—aligns with a 50.00% retracement—remains an interesting base to the upside, forming a ceiling since early March.
H1 timeframe:
Monday left behind a muted tone; therefore, the technical framework remains unmoved on this timeframe.
Resistance at 1.3878, a previous Quasimodo support level, remains in play. Resistances to note above are 1.39, the 100-period simple moving average, supply at 1.3938/1.3918 and Quasimodo resistance from 1.3952.
Should the unit leave the aforesaid resistances unchallenged and push lower, technical elements point to a test of 1.38, a level shadowed by a Quasimodo support from 1.3786 and a 161.8% Fib extension at 1.3782.
Observed levels:
Outlook largely unchanged.
Additional selling from H1 resistance at 1.3878 is a possibility. The concern, of course, is H4 support at 1.3852 and the 61.8% Fib level from 1.3829 recently making a show.
Given the above, H4 coming off support from 1.3852, aided by daily trendline support and monthly flexing its muscle north of trendline resistance, could see buyers make an entrance and attempt to tackle 1.39 on the H1, possibly followed by H1 supply at 1.3938/1.3918.
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