EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal. May, as you can see, is recovering off worst levels, on track to form another Japanese hammer candlestick pattern out of current demand.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Against the $, the euro finished higher Thursday, dethroning the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1010 and perhaps building a foundation for additional upside to supply at 1.1239/1.1179, stationed just under another area of supply at 1.1323/1.1268 and trendline resistance (1.0879).
Before reaching this far north, a retest at the 200-day simple moving average is a possibility.
H4 timeframe:
Recent development on the H4 chart saw buyers elbow through a familiar supply at 1.1057/1.1013 and a trendline resistance (1.0968), throwing light on another area of supply coming in from 1.1189/1.1158, a rally-base-drop supply zone that unites closely with a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1154.
Traders may want to chalk in the possibility of a retest forming off the recently penetrated trendline resistance as support.
H1 timeframe:
A broad move lower in the US dollar index Thursday ultimately lifted EUR/USD northbound, nudging to highs at 1.1093 following a retest seen at the widely watched round number 1.10.
Buying today could see buyers and sellers go head to head at 1.11; a turn lower, nonetheless, shines light on 1.1050 as support, with a break uncovering demand at 1.1033/1.1016 (prior supply).
Structures of Interest:
Seeing monthly price display scope to push out of demand at 1.0488/1.0912, and daily toppling the 200-day simple moving average, together with H4 price conquering supply and trendline resistance, this could propel EUR/USD to 1.11 today.
A dip to 1.1050 or H1 demand at 1.1033/1.1016, therefore, could prove healthy intraday platforms to consider today.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April’s 370-pip advance, together with May’s run higher has, as you can see, landed price at the door of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Buyers and sellers continue to square off around the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6655.
Stripping sellers from 0.6655 today likely unearths channel resistance (0.6557), a line intersecting closely with supply at 0.6777/0.6736.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
After price action addressed both supply at 0.6695/0.6664 and an area of support derived from 0.6528/0.6583, this kicked off a possible range. What’s interesting here is the aforesaid supply is glued to the lower limit of monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664.
Breaking higher will likely see traders take aim at supply from 0.6764/0.6738, essentially denoting the same range as daily supply at 0.6777/0.6736.
H1 timeframe:
Into early Europe on Thursday, the candles defended 0.66 and rose heading into US trade, consequently eclipsing orders at 0.6650. In similar fashion to Wednesday, price action failed to maintain a position above 0.6650, returning to lows at 0.6628.
Selling today may see buyers and sellers go toe to toe at 0.66, which happens to intersect with trendline support (0.6402) and a 100-period simple moving average.
Structures of Interest:
A test of 0.66 today may hold, though is open to a whipsaw into the top edge of H4 demand at 0.6583. On top of this, a reaction off 0.66 is unlikely to arouse buyers, considering monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and the 200-day simple moving average holding price action lower right now.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remains subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Since registering a top from 109.38 at the beginning of April, USD/JPY moulded a falling wedge pattern, which had its upper limit breached on May 11 in strong fashion, boosted by demand at 105.70/106.66. The take-profit target out of the said pattern, traditionally measured by taking the value of the base and adding this to the breakout point (purple), sets an objective of around 109.30.
However, in order to reach the noted take-profit target, the 200-day simple moving average at 108.30 will need to be defeated.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Structurally, supply at 108.10/107.79 remains present on the H4 timeframe, along with a local demand area at 107.21/107.41, consequently forming a week-long range. A break of the latter advertises moves to support priced in from 106.91, whereas navigating waters above the aforesaid supply could lead to resistance at 108.53 making an appearance.
H1 timeframe:
Down for a third successive session Thursday, USD/JPY took on the 100-period simple moving average and retested the aforesaid base as resistance. This puts forward a healthy demand at 107.46/107.56, an area representing a decision point that broke 107.92 (Tuesday’s high).
Movement under the aforesaid demand throws light on demand at 107.15/107.23, located a few pips under a 61.8% Fib level at 107.26 and glued to the underside of the current H4 demand found at 107.21/107.41.
Structures of Interest:
As aired in recent analysis, daily price displays room to approach the 200-day simple moving average at 108.30 and the falling wedge take-profit target of around 109.30.
Intraday action will be watching H1 demand at 107.46/107.56 for signs of buying. A reaction off here that penetrates the 100-period simple moving average may encourage additional buyers into the market. Failure to hold here shifts attention to demand at 107.15/107.23, perhaps prompting intraday selling until reaching the said area.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Though under pressure, support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in motion in May. Neighbouring resistance, should we see an attempt at recovery, can be found in the form of a trendline (1.7191). A violation of support, nevertheless, puts forward a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
A few pips south of supply at 1.2649/1.2799 (prior demand), a double-top pattern formed at 1.2647, with May 13 consuming the neckline (April 21 low 1.2247) and establishing a potential take-profit target (purple) around 1.1855.
Recent trade observed a retest at the double-top neckline at 1.2247 unfold, with buyers, at the time of writing, governing action. However, this does not imply the double-top pattern will fail; what it does mean, though, is traders are able to sell this market at a healthier risk/reward ratio, as protective stop-loss orders are generally positioned above pattern peaks: 1.2647.
H4 timeframe:
After coming within touching distance of healthy demand at 1.2170/1.2204 and trendline support (1.2075), Thursday extended Wednesday’s closing recovery. While Tuesday’s high at 1.2363 could hamper buying today, squeezing through here lays the foundation for a rally to supply at 1.2477/1.2438 and trendline resistance (1.2163 prior support).
H1 timeframe:
The British pound found itself on the front foot Thursday after dipping to the 100-period simple moving average and dramatically running through orders at 1.23 to supply at 1.2373/1.2345.
Thanks to recent price movement, we are also in the process of forming wave 4 of a potential impulse wave, where wave 1 and 5 may equal. As you can see, wave 5, if the pattern comes to fruition, terminates just above current supply. Though with 1.24 lurking close by, it is likely we’ll bring in this round number before turning lower.
Structures of Interest:
As noted in recent analysis, monthly holds 1.1904/1.2235, despite positioned against the major trend. Sellers on the daily timeframe still have a hand in the fight despite hesitating at the double-top resistance neckline from 1.2247.
H1 price offers a potential retest at 1.23 today to complete wave 4 in a 5-wave sequence. A rally from here could tap buy-stop liquidity above H1 supply at 1.2373/1.2345, with sellers perhaps emerging between 1.24 and 1.2380 (the tip of wave 5).
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