EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The euro nudged to a third successive monthly gain against the US dollar in July, adding nearly 5 percent. The move toppled long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) and made contact with the upper border of supply from 1.1857/1.1352.
This argues a move to the upside may be on the horizon, with trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1641) on the radar as the next target. Also worth noting, though, is the primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.2555 is engulfed (Feb 1 high [2018]).
August, as you can see, has been relatively lacklustre, currently up by only 0.1 percent.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Efforts to extend July’s advance have so far been contained within a channel pattern (1.1695/1.1909) on the daily timeframe, in addition to supply at 1.2012/1.1937 recently making an entrance, extended from May 2018.
Trendline support (1.0774) could welcome price movement should a break lower come to pass, while immersing the aforesaid supply points to resistance at 1.2095.
The RSI indicator, since the beginning of August, has drifted lower and exited overbought space, currently trading within close proximity of 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 1.1828/1.1868 made an entrance Monday, toughened by channel resistance (1.1950).
In light of recent selling, a rally-base-rally demand area at 1.1682/1.1716 has been thrown back into the light, an area currently gleaning additional support from a channel formation (1.1812).
H1 timeframe:
Bulls were in charge heading into Europe Monday, making quick work of 1.18 resistance.
1.1850 called for attention as we transitioned into the US session and, fed by a DXY recovery off session lows, price action retreated to lower levels, eventually retaking 1.18 to the downside.
The 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1758 is now back in the frame, as is the 1.1750 support. We can also see the RSI value elbowed back beneath its 50.00 mid-way point.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price exhibits scope to navigate lower terrain until meeting with channel support, taken from the low 1.1695, in addition to H4 also revealing room to trade lower towards demand at 1.1682/1.1716. This positions H1 candles in a bearish setting, with an initial target set around the 1.1750 point.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June and July’s follow-through, witnessed supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) abandon its position.
Concluding July higher by 3.5 percent, buyers, despite August’s failure to build on recent upside, appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).
Although price has removed trendline resistance, the market’s primary trend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Since mid-June, the pair has been compressing north between two converging trendlines (0.6832/0.7064), in what appears to be a rising wedge. Of late, price tumbled just ahead of supply at 0.7346/0.7282, leading to a test of the rising wedge base heading into last week’s close.
A break below the aforesaid rising wedge may have dips find initial support around the 0.7067 region.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Trendline support (0.7076) provided a floor to work with in the second half of the week, following Wednesday’s support breach at 0.7237.
Should buying prove unsustainable off current trendline support, probing to trendline support (0.6776) may emerge, an ascending line displaying a relatively close connection with another local trendline support (prior resistance – 0.7243).
H1 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
The beginnings of a range is currently shaping on the H1 chart between the 0.72 level (and 100-period simple moving average) and the 0.7150 support. Outside of this area, supply at 0.7236/0.7222, a clear-cut drop-base-drop zone, is seen, whereas stepping to lower terrain throws light on demand at 0.7105/0.7118.
Structures of Interest:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The higher timeframe picture currently offers mixed signals. Monthly price is attempting to secure ground north of supply at 0.7029/0.6664, while daily candles are in the process of forming a rising wedge pattern, a potential reversal formation.
H4 trendline support (0.7076), an ascending line that joins with the lower H1 range edge at 0.7150, may interest bullish strategies today, particularly range-based traders. This is also in line with monthly direction above supply, and the immediate uptrend based on the daily timeframe.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
April, May and June were pretty uneventful, with the latter wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern. July, nonetheless, sunk nearly 2 percent, testing the lower boundary of the descending triangle, while August currently trades higher by 0.10 percent.
Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers are currently squaring off mid-range between supply from 107.58/106.85 and support at 104.62, taken from the monthly timeframe (descending triangle support). It should also be noted Friday finished by way of what appears to be a neutral doji indecision candle, with Monday failing to breakout of its prior day’s range.
A push north may take on trendline resistance (111.71) and the 200-day simple moving average at 108.00, though beyond the monthly level we see limited support until reaching demand at 100.68/101.85, drawn from 2016.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Supply at 105.92/106.16 (prior demand) greeted price movement in recent trading. Last week’s mild breach, coupled with a relatively non-committal tone from sellers so far, implies we’re likely to leave demand at 105.06/105.30 (prior supply) behind and forge an advance to supply at 106.65/106.43. Held within the aforesaid area, technicians will note an ABCD pattern completes at 106.57, cushioned further by a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 106.47.
H1 timeframe:
The 100-period simple moving average, as anticipated, offered support on Monday, eventually delivering flow to 106 resistance. The view above the latter reveals resistance at 106.19, with a break perhaps forcing moves to supply at 106.49/106.35, fastened to the underside of H4 supply at 106.65/106.43.
With respect to the RSI value, the indicator defended the 50.00 centreline and is seen fast approaching overbought status.
Structures of Interest:
Recently connecting with monthly support at 104.62, daily supply at 107.58/106.85 may, once again, come under fire, possibly also pulling in trendline resistance (111.71).
H4 supply at 105.92/106.16 echoes a delicate tone, indicating a move to H4 supply at 106.65/106.43. This, alongside upside pressure from monthly support, could have H1 extend recovery gains off the 100-period simple moving average to take 106 resistance. Intraday bullish strategies above 106, therefore, might be option, with H1 resistance at 106.19 located as an initial target, along with H1 supply at 106.49/106.35.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
GBP/USD finished higher by 5.5 percent in July, leading to long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) vacating its position.
Despite the primary trend facing lower since early 2008 (unbroken until 1.4376 gives way – April 2 high [2018]), the break of current trendline resistance could have buyers work towards another prominent trendline resistance (2.1161) over the coming weeks.
August currently trades lower by 0.1 percent.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Resistance at 1.3201, along with a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.3264, remains in play on the daily timeframe, welcoming price action last week. Note we also have another 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.3408 to work with in the event of moves higher. 1.3021/1.2844 is stationed nearby as demand, with a violation uncovering the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2719.
As you can see, buyers and sellers emphasise an uncertain tone right now. On one side, sellers are defending the aforesaid structures, while on the other side of the field buyers appear eager to extend the immediate trend, set in March.
H4 timeframe:
Demand at 1.3074/1.3118 had its lower boundary removed on Monday, unshackling downside to nearby trendline support (1.2981), with a break turning the attention to another trendline support (1.2259), with a breach liberating sellers to an area of stacked demand between 1.2948/1.2910 and 1.2945/1.2989. Traders may also want to note this area inhabits daily demand at 1.3021/1.2844.
H1 timeframe:
As expected, Monday reached above 1.31, retested the latter as support and crossed paths with supply at 1.3150/1.3127. US traders unwound strongly from the supply, toppling 1.31 and bottoming just ahead of 1.3050 support, located nearby demand at 1.3024/1.3039. This is a reasonably important zone, representing an area where a decision was made to take the currency pair above 1.3050 and local peaks around 1.3067.
Indicator-based traders will note the RSI is also seen producing bullish divergence.
Structures of Interest:
Though monthly indicates scope to navigate territory north of current price, daily resistance at 1.3201 and the daily 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.3264 has so far hindered upside attempts.
Intraday, a whipsaw through 1.3050 support into H1 demand at 1.3024/1.3039 is a possible scenario. Having seen H4 trendline support (1.2981) combine with the H1 area, traders may find use in this base. However, with daily demand at 1.3021/1.2844 set just under the zone, a whipsaw through the H1 demand area could also unfold.
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