EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm. This prompted an extension in June to highs at 1.1422, adding 1.2%, despite running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
Interestingly, July is currently crossing paths with the aforesaid trendline resistance.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).
It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
A mild bid has been observed since June 19 after reaching 1.1168, which, as you can see, recently gathered traction and retested the aforesaid PRZ, and consequently hauled the RSI value to within touching distance of overbought levels. Wednesday ended considerably off best levels, by way of a shooting star candlestick configuration, considered a bearish signal at peaks.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 1.1470/1.1447 made an entrance yesterday, an area drawn from early February 2019. The base was clearly of interest to shorts, containing enough fuel to drive things back into the ascending channel between 1.1185/1.1345.
Holding under channel resistance today has demand at 1.1324/1.1345 on the radar as the next point of consideration, with a break here unmasking channel support.
H1 timeframe:
EUR/USD bulls managed to hold the 1.14 perimeter Wednesday, with 1.1450 making a show. Despite earlier enthusiasm, things turned sour heading into US trading and had the market revisit waters just ahead of the aforesaid round number.
Trendline support (1.1255) is also on the shelf today. A whipsaw through 1.14 could be enough to draw this level into the fight.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, neighbouring long-term trendline resistance, the daily PRZ between 1.1462/1.1395 (and daily bearish candlestick pattern) and H4 testing supply from 1.1470/1.1447 puts forward a strong ceiling in this market.
Similar to Wednesday’s analysis, the above is unlikely to see H1 bulls commit off 1.14 today. In fact, a break of the aforesaid level and H1 trendline support would not surprise. This may also serve as a robust bearish signal towards at least 1.1350.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in July, particularly as intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) demonstrates signs of weakening.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, however, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
AUD/USD ousted resistance at 0.6931 in recent moves, with the latter now featured as support.
The break to the upside shifts focus towards two nearby trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), levels coming within touching distance of making a show yesterday. A violation here unmasks resistance at 0.7197.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Formed from June 10 to July 1, H4 established a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern enthusiasts. The breakout witnessed at the beginning of July unearthed a buy signal, but heading into mid-month, price entered a ranging phase (blue) between 0.6925/0.6999. As you can see, Wednesday penetrated the upper boundary of the aforesaid H4 consolidation and encountered neighbouring supply at 0.7058/0.7029.
H1 timeframe:
The breach of the H4 range simultaneously witnessed H1 candles tackle supply at 0.7003/0.6987 (and 0.70), an area containing the upper boundary of the aforementioned H4 range.
The area where the decision was essentially made to break higher yesterday can be seen in the form of demand from 0.6980/0.6993, a base that has held form. Trading higher from current price, aside from local highs, could extend as far north as 0.7050.
Structures of Interest:
Buyers appear to have the advantage right now.
Monthly price appears to be squeezing sellers out of the market and daily buyers are seen holding around support at 0. 6931.This may have traders attempt to join the recent recovery out of H1 demand at 0.6980/0.6993 today, with most wanting to see 0.70 hold as support.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
April and May were pretty uneventful, with June also wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern.
Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand at 105.70/106.66, although an area recently favoured, has since lacked follow-through.
Assuming an extension to the upside, the 200-day simple moving average at 108.36 and the 108.16 high (July 1) are likely watched resistances. Below current demand re-opens the risk of a return to support at 105.01.
H4 timeframe:
Following Tuesday’s whipsaw through channel resistance (108.16), a move that brought in the lower ledge of supply at 107.60/107.42, Wednesday welcomed sellers and dropped to a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 106.67. Technical traders will note this Fib base is also located close by demand at 106.39/106.64 and channel support (107.36).
H1 timeframe:
USD/JPY dropped through the 100-period simple moving average heading into European trade Wednesday, with price action also taking on the 107 level and probing lows just ahead of support coming in from 106.64. This also pulled the RSI value into oversold waters.
US trade, as you can see, marginally pared losses and drew things back to levels just under 107. Note the 100-period simple moving average is also seen closing in on the round number.
Structures of Interest:
Daily demand at 105.70/106.66 recently re-joined the fight, albeit echoing a fragile tone.
H4 is seen recovering off the 161.8% Fib ext. level at 106.67, while H1 is currently consolidating under 107. Given the H4 and daily timeframes, 107 and the 100-period simple moving average could be taken today, with intraday traders potentially targeting supply set at 107.30/107.23 and resistance from 107.50.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 and long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) offers clear structure to work with on the monthly timeframe at the moment, with the latter prompting a notable upper shadow in June.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008, placing 1.1904/1.2235 support in a vulnerable position.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers recently clashed below the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2694, with Monday coming forward and chalking up a bearish outside day. This was initially well received by sellers Tuesday, testing lows at 1.2479. Yet, later in the session, GBP/USD staged a notable recovery, reclaiming earlier losses and establishing a ‘dragonfly doji’, a bullish reversal candlestick pattern. Yesterday, nonetheless, answered back with a shooting star candle pattern, a bearish reversal signal.
Demand at 1.2192/1.2361 is still in view, as is supply from 1.3021/1.2844, situated above the aforesaid simple moving average.
H4 timeframe:
Sterling modestly extended recovery gains out of demand at 1.2462/1.2506 Wednesday, and despite forming a bearish engulfing candle, buyers may still be looking ahead to supply at 1.2720/1.2682. Traders will note this area also comes with channel resistance (prior support – 1.2257).
H1 timeframe:
Wednesday witnessed the currency pair drive through orders at 1.26 to neighbouring support at 1.2581. Currently capped by the 100-period simple moving average at 1.2590, though, buyers are struggling to find grip.
Although the noted support brings with it reasonably impressive history, a drop to 1.2550 support is not out of the question, with a break here uncovering the 1.25 handle.
Structures of Interest:
H1 support at 1.2581 holds despite the lack of higher timeframe backing and pressure from breakout sellers under 1.26 and SMA resistance. A H1 close above the round number today may draw additional buying back to 1.2650 resistance and 1.2682, the lower edge of H4 supply.
Breaking 1.2581 will bring light to 1.2550 support and perhaps unlock the door for intraday selling.
As you can see, not really much of a connection exists between intraday and higher timeframes today.
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