EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of demand from 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs, with June extending gains and recently reconnecting with the lower ledge of supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
After two days of reasonable bidding, EUR/USD knocked on the doors of a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern (comprised of an 88.6% Fib ret level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 [red oval]) and rotated lower in strong fashion Thursday.
It’s common to see traders sell PRZs and position protective stop-loss orders above the X point, in this case at 1.1495. Common targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib ret levels (derived from legs A-D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
In addition to the bearish configuration, the RSI indicator recently exited overbought territory.
H4 timeframe:
Sellers regained consciousness Thursday, despite an active attempt to topple supply coming in from 1.1415/1.1376 late Wednesday, an area boasting a connection to the lower edge of the daily harmonic PRZ. According to technical studies, price exhibits weak demand (purple – demand appears tested/consumed) until reaching 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply).
H1 timeframe:
Thursday witnessed the DXY flex its financial muscle above daily support at 95.84 yesterday, sending EUR/USD through the 100-period simple moving average and 1.13 level, with nearby channel support (1.1194) set to embrace price action.
RSI traders will also note the value edging closer to oversold territory.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 in play, as well as the daily harmonic bat pattern’s PRZ capping upside and H4 suggesting scope to navigate deeper waters throws light on bearish scenarios under 1.13 today. Some traders, however, will be watching for H1 channel support to give way before taking action, with 1.1250 set as the next support on the H1 timeframe.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension and June’s rally so far has placed monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 in sight. What’s also notable here is within the supply area’s walls a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) is in motion.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe have been squaring off between two trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671) along with supply at 0.7059/0.7031 and support from 0.6931 since late last week.
Thursday directed AUD/USD through support at 0.6931, fuelling the possibility of a drop to another support pencilled in at 0.6755.
Indicator-based traders will note the RSI oscillator dipped from peaks at 80.00 and recently exited overbought territory. It may also interest traders to note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6663 is in the process of flattening following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
0.7046/0.7036 made its debut at the beginning of the week as supply and certainly proved its worth.
Thursday put forward losses of more than 2.00%, extending south of multi-month peaks at 0.7064 and booking into demand at 0.6827/0.6858 (prior supply). It should be noted this area also joins closely with another demand at 0.6773/0.6814, accompanied alongside a trendline support (0.6402) and a 38.2% Fib ret level at 0.6808.
H1 timeframe:
Downbeat risk sentiment witnessed AUD/USD reclaim 0.69 to the downside Thursday and cross paths with demand at 0.6841/0.6867, an area joining with the 0.6850 line. Below we have another demand on the radar at 0.6788/0.6812, housing 0.68.
RSI action also recently nosedived into oversold levels, testing lows of 20.00.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply/trendline resistance, coupled with daily price crossing under support at 0.6931, deserves notice as an indication of further selling.
This may weigh on upside attempts out of H4 and H1 demands today, shifting intraday traders into a precarious situation: sell into H4 and H1 demands or buy into higher-timeframe direction.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remained subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98, with June currently off best levels, down 0.8%.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Recording its fourth successive decline Thursday, demand at 105.70/106.66 welcomed price action and, as you can see, has so far held its upper boundary.
Recent downside has tripped any sell-stops circling under 107.07 (May 29 low) and perhaps provided enough fuel to stage a healthy rebound from 105.70/106.66.
H4 timeframe:
Familiar support at 106.91 made a showing yesterday, though was unable to latch onto anything solid as risk sentiment favoured a shift into safe-haven assets.
Consequently, demand at 106.49/106.66 squeezed into view and knocked some of the wind out of the pair’s descent yesterday, prompting a possible revisit of 106.91.
H1 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Since Tuesday, H1 has been compressing within the walls of a falling wedge pattern (108.52107.92), which, in this case, could serve as a reversal signal. 107.32 (green) gave way as support Wednesday, with 107 also giving up ground Thursday.
A decisive breakout above the H1 falling wedge (and preferably the 107 level) would be viewed as an encouraging sign to the upside, perhaps eyeing H1 resistance at 107.32 and supply at 107.86/107.67.
The RSI indicator is also seen producing bullish divergence out of oversold territory.
Structures of Interest:
Following a breakout above the H1 falling wedge (most traders will also want to see 107 taken to cover H4 resistance at 106.91) buyers, thanks to daily price testing daily demand at 105.70/106.66, could stage an intraday recovery today towards H1 resistance at 107.32 and H1 supply from 107.86/107.67.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in motion in June, with the month currently recording gains of more than 2% despite facing long-term trendline resistance (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Off best levels a touch ahead of supply from 1.3021/1.2844 on Wednesday witnessed GBP/USD dive more than 1% Thursday, causing an enthusiastic move back through the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2678.
Not only did recent selling pull the RSI indicator from overbought status, it shines light on demand at 1.2192/1.2361, essentially representing the decision point to crack 1.2647 (April 14 high).
H4 timeframe:
Early Asia Friday nudged H4 into demand made up from 1.2525/1.2575, an area aligning with trendline support (1.2163). What’s appealing about this demand is the sell-stops tripped on approach beneath local bottoms around 1.2617.
H1 timeframe:
Early Asia on the H1 timeframe has sellers governing control under 1.26, with eyes on demand at 1.2527/1.2550. This is a particularly important intraday zone as it was effectively the decision point to drive into 1.25 on June 4. The concern for buyers at this area, however, is the threat of a whipsaw to 1.25.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly trendline resistance recently made an entrance, which, owing to the long-term downtrend, appears to be capping upside. Breaking through the 200-day SMA on the daily timeframe certainly adds weight to additional losses.
An intraday bounce from H4 demand at 1.2525/1.2575 is in the offing, particularly at the aligning trendline, which essentially combines with H1 demand at 1.2527/1.2550. Though do be aware a whipsaw to 1.25 here is possible.
Short plays, based on higher-timeframe direction, likely appeal under 1.25 on the H1, void of support until 1.2450.
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